559

A Stochastic Methodology for PV System Allocation in Power Distribution Networks

Gustavo M. Espinoza, Ferdinando Crispino, Leandro Martins, Mauricio B. C. Salles, Carlos F. M. Almeida, Renato M. Monaro, Luís F. N. Lourenço, Luiz H. L. Rosa, Nelson Kagan, Juan C. Cebrian

1. Department of Electrical Energy and Automation Engineering, Polytechnic School, University of São Paulo, São Paulo – (Brazil).
2. Power Systems Innovation Hub (RCGI-Innova Power)
University of São Paulo, (Brazil).

2026-02-15

The increasing penetration rate of photovoltaicgeneration (PV) in distribution networks has led system operators to face several challenges such as overvoltage, voltage fluctuations, frequency fluctuations, and reverse power flow. This paper introduces a stochastic approach to determine the impact of Hosting Capacity (HC) on a real distribution network in terms of voltage profiles and power losses. The methodology uses historical data of temperature and irradiance over one year, which served as inputs for the stochastic allocation of PV units. Later, PV installation points and the generation capacities are randomly assigned based on historical data. HC is evaluated across various PV penetration rate, analyzing its effects on voltage problems (undervoltage and overvoltage) and power losses. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of PV placement in mitigating voltage issues and identifying the proper HC.

Key words: Hosting Capacity, Monte Carlo simulation, stochastic method, photovoltaic systems, Power Distribution Systems, Power Losses, Voltage Profile, Charging.

[1] Z. Xu, N. Zhang, J. Li, C. Zhong, J. Dang, R. Chang, S. Yang, F. Yu, G. Zhang, J. Zhang, G. Wang, and X. Mi, "Optimization of losses in active low-voltage distribution networks in mountainous areas considering photovoltaic integration," 2024 3rd International Conference on Energy, Power and Electrical Technology (ICEPET), pp. 616-621, 2024. doi: 10.1109/ICEPET61938.2024.10627049.

[2] T. O. Olowu, A. Sundararajan, M. Moghaddami, and A. I. Sarwat, "Future challenges and mitigation methods for high photovoltaic penetration: A survey," Energies, vol. 11, no. 7, p. 1782, 2018. doi: 10.3390/en11071782.

[3] S. Wolfe and A. Mensah, "Overcoming Challenges to High Penetration of Solar PV: Using Optimized Energy Storage and Distribution Grid Controls," The Electricity Journal, vol. 25, no. 9, pp. 43-47, 2012. doi: 10.1016/j.tej.2012.09.009.

[4] C. D. W. Wanninayaka Mudiyanselage, K. N. Hasan, A. Vahidnia, and M. T. Rahaman, "Probabilistic EV hosting capacity of an Australian distribution network in the presence of uncertainties," 2023 IEEE International Conference on Energy Technologies for Future Grids (ETFG), pp. 1-6, 2023. doi: 10.1109/ETFG55873.2023.10408149.

[5] M. Z. ul Abideen, O. Ellabban, and L. Al-Fagih, "A review of the tools and methods for distribution networks’ hosting capacity calculation," Energies, vol. 13, no. 11, p. 2758, 2020. doi: 10.3390/en13112758.

[6] S. Fatima, V. Püvi, and M. Lehtonen, "Review on the PV hosting capacity in distribution networks," Energies, vol. 13, no. 18, p. 4756, 2020. doi: 10.3390/en13184756.

[7] J. Wang, X. Xing, Z. Fu, C. Hai, H. Liu, and Q. Wang, "Feasible region analysis of PV hosting capacity in active distribution networks via a two-stage optimization approach," Electric Power Systems Research, vol. 242, p. 111446, 2025. doi: 10.1016/j.epsr.2025.111446.

[8] T. Gu, Q. Lv, Q. Fan, B. Li, C. Lin, H. Zhang, and J. Mao, "Two-stage distributionally robust assessment method for distributed PV hosting capacity of flexible distribution networks," Energy Reports, vol. 11, pp. 2266-2278, 2024. doi: 10.1016/j.egyr.2024.01.079.

[9] A. Arshad, V. Püvi, and M. Lehtonen, "Monte Carlo-based comprehensive assessment of PV hosting capacity and energy storage impact in realistic Finnish low-voltage networks," Energies, vol. 11, no. 6, p. 1467, 2018. doi: 10.3390/en11061467.

[10] Agência Nacional de Energia Elétrica (ANEEL), "Procedimentos de Distribuição de Energia Elétrica no Sistema Elétrico Nacional (PRODIST) –Módulo 10," 2021. [Online]. Available: https://www.gov.br/aneel/pt-br/centrais-de-conteudos/procedimentos-regulatorios/prodist.

[11] L. O. Martins, G. G. T. T. Vieira, W. N. Silva, L. F. N. Lourenço, and M. B. C. Salles, "Calculation methodology for MMDG penetration in distribution networks," to appear in Proceedings of the International Conference on Clean Electrical Power, 2025.

[12] A. A. Amarsinghe, J. D. Mossoba, A. A. M. A. M. Ali, and T. K. Saha, “Study of rooftop PV hosting capacity in 2 kV systems in facing distributed generation challenges,” in 2018 IEEE Power & Energy Society General Meeting (PESGM), Portland, OR, USA, 2018, pp. 1–5. doi: 10.1109/PESGM.2018.8586047.