From Energy Security to Water Stress: Implications of Pakistan’s Solar
Rizwan-uddin Master of Engineering in Energy Systems Program, Talbot Lab, Urbana USA The Grainger College of Engineering, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, USA   2026-06-27

Abstract

Pakistan has experienced an unprecedented expansion in solar photovoltaic (PV) deployment over the past three years, emerging as one of the world’s fastest-growing solar adopter. This transformation has been driven by escalating electricity tariffs, declining PV and battery costs, and persistent grid unreliability. This paper provides an assessment of the structural drivers of decentralized solar adoption, evaluates its impact on the national energy system and consumer behavior, and analyzes the unintended consequences for groundwater sustainability. The findings highlight a critical challenge at the energy–water (and more broadly energy–water–food) nexus: that sustainability in one sector may induce unsustainable resource use in another. A simplified mathematical model for coupled analysis of energy-water system is also presented. The paper concludes with policy recommendations aimed at integrating energy and water governance to ensure long-term sustainability for both.

Key words: Solar Power, Energy-Water Nexus, Energy policy, Environment, Energy and Agriculture, Pakistan.

References

[1] Khalid Waleed, Pakistan’s solar saga, DAWN, March 2, 2026

[2] Zaki Abbas, Pakistan’s Solar Boom Shielding Country from Hormuz Disruptions, DAWN, March 17, 2026.

[3] Saadia Qayyum, “Pakistan’s Solar Journey is Feeling the Heat from Cost Shifting,” DAWN, May 28, 2025

[4] Abdul Wahab Siyal and P. Winnie Gerbens-Leenes, “The Water–Energy Nexus in Irrigated Agriculture in South Asia: Critical Hotspots of Irrigation Water Use, Related Energy Application, and Greenhouse Gas Emissions for Wheat, Rice, Sugarcane, and Cotton in Pakistan,” Frontiers in Water, 2022.

[5] Manzoor Ahmed Alizai, Rimsha Rehan , “Net Metering Billing: Who Pays the Price for Pakistan’s New Solar regime?” DAWN, February 10, 2026.

[6] Ariba Shahid, “Solar-Powered Farming is Digging Pakistan into a Water Catastrophe,” Reuters, October 1, 2025.

[7] Muhammad Khalid Jamil, et al, “The Effect of Transitioning from Diesel to Solar Photovoltaic Energy for Irrigation Tube Wells on Annual Groundwater Extraction in the Lower Indus Basin, Pakistan,” Journal of Agriculture and Food Research, 20 (2025) 101799

[8] Haneea Isaad and Syed Faizan Ali Shah, “Battery Storage and the Future of Pakistan’s Electricity Grid,” Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) Report, 2025.

[9] Asad S. Qureshi, “Groundwater Governance in Pakistan: From Colossal Development to Neglected Management,” Water, MDPI, Oct, 2020.

[10] Riaz Ahmad et al., “Integrated Systems Modeling for Assessing the Water–Energy,” Engineering, 50, pp. 72–87 (2025), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eng.2025.02.013