A Risk-Aware Market Selection Framework for Prosumers in Multi-Market Energy Environments |
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R. Estudillo(1), G. Fernandez(1), R. Rocca(1,2), M. Gallego(1), M. Garcia(1), D. Ferreira(3) 1.CIRCE Technology Centre, Zaragoza (Spain).
2026-06-27 |
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Abstract
With the ongoing transition towards Smart Grids, power systems are increasingly characterized by the integration of distributed energy assets, the electrification of loads, and the deployment of advanced monitoring and control infrastructures. While these developments enable more efficient operation, they also introduce new operational challenges, particularly at distribution level, such as congestion and voltage issues. As a result, the use of flexibility and the emergence of new energy markets have gained relevance, enabling distributed resources to actively support system operation. In this context, the prosumer becomes a key actor. One of the main challenges prosumers face is the lack of knowledge related to energy markets and power system operation, particularly regarding energy prices and uncertainty associated with flexibility service activation in the day-ahead horizon. Although energy prices can be predicted with reasonable accuracy, deviations from actual future values remain unavoidable. This uncertainty, combined with multiple market options, introduces additional risk when deciding which market to participate in. To address this challenge, this paper proposes a novel algorithm that evaluates market-specific risk for each time window based on a configurable risk aversion parameter and selects the optimal market for buying or selling energy, considering price prediction uncertainty and probability of market activation.
Key words: Flexibility, energy market, prosumer, smart grid, optimal market selection
Published in: Renewable Energies, Environment
& Power Quality Journal (REE&PQJ) |
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| ISSUE: Vol. 26. No.3 | Pages: 308-313 |
| E-ISSN: 3020-531 X | Date of Current Version: 2026-06-27 |
| REF: 323-26 | Issue Date: 2026-07-15 |
| DOI:10.24084/reepqj26-323 | Publisher: AEDERMACP/ EA4EPQ |
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