Study on Voltage Control of Distribution Network Using PV Generation Forecasting

 

H. Kobayashi and M. Kato

 

2017/04/25

Abstrac

With the expected spread of photovoltaic (PV) systems, high power generation in spring and summer is expected to cause abnormally high voltage in distribution systems. As described in herein, we propose a method to improve the utilization efficiency of a small-scale PV generator
connected to a distribution system by short-term (30 min) forecasting of solar power generation output in a small area of a few kilometers. As a countermeasure against abnormally high voltage, a method exists to adjust the voltage by switching a tap of the substation transformer. However, the switching frequency of the tap with mechanical contact is limited to once or twice per hour. Under these conditions, if short-term forecasting of solar power generation were possible, then tap changing of a substation transformer efficiently could maintain voltage within an appropriate range, which enables effective use of solar power. This paper is organized as follows. After a short-term forecast method of solar power is proposed. The method of adjusting the sending end voltage of a distribution substation based on the PV output forecast data is proposed. Finally, reduction of the PV disconnection frequency is verified numerically.

Published in: Renewable Energy & Power Quality Journal (RE&PQJ, Nº. 15)
Pages: 261-266 Date of Publication: 2017/04/25
ISSN: 2172-038X Date of Current Version:
REF: 287-17 Issue Date: April 2017
DOI:10.24084/repqj15.287 Publisher: EA4EPQ

Authors and affiliations

H. Kobayashi(1,2) and M. Kato(2)
1. Polytechnic University, Kodaira-shi, Tokyo, (Japan)
2. Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Tokyo Denki University (Japan)

Key word

Forecast, disconnection, distribution line, smoothing effect.

References

[1] D. Díaz, J.A. Souto, A. Rodríguez, S. Saavedra, J.J. Casares, A. García-Loureiro, R. Varela, M.J. Rodríguez-Legarreta, J. and Rodríguez-Aneiros “Controlled power distributed photovoltaic system using solar energy forecast”, in Proceedings of the International Conference on Renewable Energies and Power Quality (ICREPQ’12), Santiago de Compostela (Spain), 2012, 5, pp. 350-354
[2] E. Lorenz, J. Remund, S.C. Müller, W. Traunmüller, G. Steinmaurer, D. Pozo, J.A. Ruiz-Arias, V. Lara, L. Ramírez, M.
Gaston, C. Kurz, L.M. Pomares, and C. Geijo. “Benchmarking of different approaches to forecast solar irradiance”, in
Proceedings of 24 European Photovoltaic and Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition, Hamburg 2009b, (Germany), pp. 10.
[3] K. Yasunami and T. Washio, “An Estimation Method of Cross-Correlation Function using Spatiotemporal Attenuation
Model for Photovoltaic Generation Power Fluctuation Analysis”, IEEJ Transactions on Power and Energy, Vol. 135, No. 10, pp. 613–623 (2015) (in Japanese)
[4] D. Díaz, J.A. Souto, A. Rodríguez, S. Saavedra, and J.J. Casares, “An ensemble-in-time forecast ofsolar irradiance” in
Proceedings of the International Conference on Renewable Energies and Power Quality (ICREPQ’12), Santiago de
Compostela (Spain), 2012, 5 pp. 3465-3485. (on-line at the Conferences series website)
[5] J.M. Botana, A. Rodríguez, and J.A. Gonzalez, “Testing new ensemble forecasts of solar irradiance” in Proceedings of the International Conference on Renewable Energies and Power Quality (ICREPQ’15), A Coruña (Spain), 2015, 5 pp. (on-line at the Conferences series website)
[6] Yoshio Yamagishi, Kensuke Saji, Isao Aoki, Ryoichi Tanikawa, and Yasumasa Fujii, “Accuracy Verification of
Irradiance Forecast using Numerical Weather Prediction Data by Japan Meteorological Agency”, IEEJ Trans. PE, Vol. 132, No. 4, pp. 334-340 (2012). (in Japanese)
[7] Takae Shimada and Kosuke Kurokawa, “Insolation Forecasting Using Weather Forecast with Weather Change
Patterns”, IEEJ Trans. PE, Vol. 127, No. 11, pp. 1219-1225 (2007). (in Japanese)
[8] Fumitoshi Nomiyama, Takuma Murakami, Joji Asai, Hirotaka Takano, and Junichi Murata, “Day Ahead Global Solar
Radiation Forecasting Using Binary Trees and Factor Analysis”, IEEJ Transactions on Power and Energy, Vol. 134, No. 4, pp. 353-359 (2014)
[9] Takanobu Suzuki, Yusuke Goto, Takahiro Terazono, Shinji Wakao, and Takashi Oozeki, “Forecast Method of Solar
Irradiance with Just-In-Time Modeling”, IEEJ Trans. PE, Vol. 131, No. 11, pp. 912-919 (2011). (in Japanese)
[10] Hideaki Ohtake, Ken-obi Shimose, Joao Gari da Silva Fonseca Junior, Takumi Takashima, Takashi Oozeki, and
Yoshinori Yamada, “Evaluation of Forecast Errors of the Global Solar Irradiance Obtained from the Japan Meteorological
Agency Global Spectral Model”, IEEJ Transactions on Power and Energy, Vol. 134, No. 6, pp. 501-509 (2014).
[11] Fujihiro Yamada, Yoshihiko Wazawa, Kazuhiro Kobayashi, Yasushi Miwa, Tomoki Kinno, Kazuto Yukita, Yasuyuki Goto, and Katsuhiro Ichiyanagi, “Prediction of Next Day Solar Power Generation by Gray Theory and Neural Networks”, IEEJ Transactions on Power and Energy, Vol. 134, No. 6, pp. 494-500 (2014).
[12] Hisatomo Miyata, Kazutoshi Miyashita, Takayuki Endo, Yuichi Shimasaki, Tatsuya Iizaka, and Toru Katsuno “A Study
of a Next Day Electric Load Curve Forecasting Method and its Accuracy Improvement”, IEEJ Transactions on Power and
Energy, Vol. 134, No. 1, pp. 9-15 (2014).
[13] R. Perez, S. Kivalov, J. Schlemmer, K. Hemker, D. Renné, and T.E. Hoff, “Validation of short and medium term operational solar radiation forecasts in the US”, Sol. Energy, Vol. 84, pp. 2161-2173, (2010).
[14] Yoshio Yamagishi and Yasumasa Fujii, “Accuracy Verification of Arbitrary Point Insolation Estimation using the
Automated Meteorological Data Acquisition System Data”, IEEJ Trans. PE, Vol. 132, No. 1, pp. 65-70 (2012). (in Japanese)
[15] Motoki Akatsuka, Ryoichi Hara, Hiroyuki Ita, Tomoyuki Fukushima, Atsushi Sakahara, and Takatoshi Matsumoto,
“Generation of Time Series of Spatially Averaged Solar Radiation in 10 km Square Are based on Solar Radiation at
Single Location and Evaluation by Occurrence Frequency of Fluctuation Range”, IEEJ Transactions on Power and Energy, Vol. 134, No. 4, pp. 311-319 (2014).
[16] Toshiya Nanahara, Katsuhisa Yoshimoto, Eitaro Omine, Shin-obi Nishino, and Yoshihiko Wazawa, “Correlation in
Short-Term Fluctuations of Solar Irradiances across an Area – Analysis of Correlation on a Day with Large Fluctuations –”,https://doi.org/10.24084/repqj15.287 265 RE&PQJ, Vol.1, No.15, April 2017 IEEJ Transactions on Power and Energy, Vol. 134, No. 4, pp. 336-343 (2014).
[17] Takeyoshi Kato and Yasuo Suzuki, “A Study of Estimation of Average Power Output Fluctuation of Clustered Photovoltaic Power Generation Systems in Urban District of a few km2,” IEEJ Trans. PE, Vol. 130, No. 2, pp. 214-222, (2010) (in Japanese).
[18] Kazuhiro Hidaka, Yukio Shinoda, and Tomoki Okamoto, “A Study of Wide Area Output Estimation of Photovoltaic
Systems”, IEEJ Transactions on Power and Energy, Vol. 134 No. 6, pp. 477-483 (2014).
[19]. Hiroyuki Nagoya, Shintaro Komami, Kazuhiko Ogimoto, and Yumiko Iwafime, “A Study for Impact of Parameter
Identification on Presumed Total Output of Highly Penetrated Photovoltaic Generation Fluctuation Considering Mutual
Smoothing Effect”, IEEJ Transactions on Power and Energy, Vol. 134, No. 4, pp. 296-303 (2014).
[20] Yoshihiko Kataoka, “An Observability Index for Evaluation of Measurement Formation in Estimation of the Total Output of Widely Distributed Solar Photovoltaic Generators”, IEEJ Transactions on Power and Energy, Vol. 134, No. 4, pp. 320-327 (2014).
[21] Mitsuru Kudo, Akira Takeuchi, Yousuke Nozaki, Hisahito Endo, and Jiro Sumita, “Forecasting Electric Power Generation of Photovoltaic Power System for Energy Network”, IEEJ Trans. PE, Vol. 127, No. 7, pp. 847-853 (2007). (in Japanese)
[22] Ricardo Marquez and Carlos F.M. Coimbra, “Intra-hour DNI forecasting based on cloud tracking image analysis”, Solar Energy, Vol. 91, No. 327-336 (2013)
[23] Y. Makino, M. Kurimoto, T. Kato, and Y. Suzuki, “Nowcasting of Spatial Average Irradiance in Several kilometer
Radius Area using All-sky Image”, IEEJ Trans. PE, Vol. 134, No. 6, pp. 510-517 (2014). (in Japanese)
[24] Ryuji Kawai, Katsuhiro Ichiyanagi, Kazuto Yukita,Yasuyuki Goto, Kazuhiro Kobayashi, and Yasushi Miwa,
“Forecasting of Short Period Variation due to Photovoltaic Power – Estimation of solar radiation using cloud image data of several points –,” 2014 Annual Meeting Record IEEJ, Vol. 6, pp. 227-228. (in Japanese)
[25] H. Kobayashi and J. Arai, “Short-term Forecast for Photovoltaic Power Generation with Correlation of Solar Power
Irradiance of Multi Points”, Recent Researches in Electrical Engineering (WSEAS) pp. 89-94 (2014).
[26] J. Kondoh, “Evaluation on Reduction of Output Suppression Loss by Cooperative Control of Voltage Profile in a
Distribution System with a Large Amount of Photovoltaic Power Generation Short-term Forecast for Photovoltaic Power
Generation”, IEEJ Trans. PE, Vol. 130, No. 11, pp. 981-988 (2010). (in Japanese)