Investment risk analysis of electricity generation from vinasse biodigestion in the Brazilian Regulated Market Luane Schiochet Pinto, Daywes Pinheiro Neto, Elder Geraldo Domingues 2018/04/20

Abstract

This paper presents a methodology of investment risk analysis of the electricity generation by using biogas from biodigestion of sugarcane vinasse produced in sugarcane agroindustries. The methodology to be presented uses econometric models to generate synthetic time series of ethanol production, which is used to estimate the production of vinasse, biogas and electricity. The economic viability analysis will be done from the evaluation of the probability distribution functions of Net Present Value, Modified Internal Rate of Return and Discounted Payback, by considering that the electricity produced is commercialized in the Brazilian Regulated Contracting Environment. A case study is carried out using real data from a sugarcane plant located in the Midwest region of Brazil. The results indicate the economic viability of the project implementation.

Authors and affiliations

Luane Schiochet Pinto, Daywes Pinheiro Neto, Elder Geraldo Domingues
Master Program in Sustainable Process Technologies. Federal Institute of Goiás (IFG). Campus of Goiânia – Goiás, Brazil

Key words

Biogas; Brazilian Regulated Contracting Enviroment; Risk Analysis; Vinasse.

References

[1] M. A. F. D. S. Nogueira; M. D. S. Garcia. Management of industrial sugar-energy sector waste: a power plant case study in Rio Brilhante municipality Mato Grosso do Sul (in Portuguese). Journal of the Center for Natural and Exact UFSM, Santa Maria, v. 17, p. 3275-3283, Dec 2013.
[2] L. Cortez; P. Magalhães; J. HappiMain by-products of the sugarcane agroindustry and its valorization. Brazilian Journal of Energy, v.2, n. 2, 1992.
[3] M. M. R. Poveda. Economic and Environmental Analysis of Vinasse Processing with Energy Utilization (in Portuguese). Master Thesis. Post-Graduation in Energy. Institute of Energy and Environment. University of Sao Paulo. São Paulo, 2014.
[4] N. J. de Castro; G. A. Dantas; A. L. S. Leite; R. Brandão. Bioelectricity and the alcohol and sugar industry: possibilities and limits. Rio de Janeiro: Synergia: Eletrobrás: GESEL, UFRJ,2008.
[5] V. C. Micuanski, Technical and Economic Feasibility of Using Vinasse for Electricity Generation (Case Study) (in Portuguese). Master Thesis. Graduate Program in Energy Engineering in Agriculture. State University of Western Paraná. Cascavel, 2014.
[6] A. Rodrigues, R. F. Santos, A. B. Avaci, H. A. Rosa, L. I. Chaves, E. Gasparin. Estimation of the Power Generation Potential from Vinhaça. Acta Iguazu Magazine, Cascavel, v.1, n.2, p.80-93,2012.
[7] L.M. Ozorio; C. L. B. Pinto; T. K. N. Baidya; L. E. T. Brandão. (Mean Reversion with Drift and Real Options in Steel Industry. Brazilian Journal of Finance, v. 10, p. 215-241, 2012.
[8] A. N. Costa; E. G. Domingues; G. P. Medeiros; D. Pinheiro Neto; A. J. Alves; W. C. Pacheco. Investment Risk Analysis in the Use of Landfill Biogas for Electricity Generation. In: International Conference on Renewable Energy and Power Quality Journal (ICREPQ'16). Madrid, 2016.
[9] L. S. Pinto; E. G. Domingues; D. Pinheiro Neto; S. Ramalho; M. H. E. Tschudin; G. P. Medeiros.Risk Analysis of the Electric Power Generation Potential from Biogas Coming from Vinasse Biodigestion. In: IEEE II Congreso Chileno De Ingeniería Eléctrica, Electrónica, Tecnologías De La Información Y Comunicaciones (IEEE CHILECON 2017). Pucón, 2017.
[10] A. Damodaran. Valuation of Investments - Tools and Techniques for Determining the Value of Any Assets. 2 ed. Rio de Janeiro: Qualitymark,2010.
[11] N. Casarotto Filho; B. H. Kopittke. Analysis of Investments: Financial Mathematics, Economic Engineering, Decision Making, Business Strategy.10. ed. São Paulo: Atlas, 2007.
[12] H. G. Brazil. Modern Investment Assessment. 1. ed. Rio de Janeiro: Qualitymark, 2002.